Climate Scientists View the Future

In a 2024 survey of 843 scientists leading the IPCC since 2018, with 380 responding, 77% believe the global temperature increase will reach 2.5°C, 42% expect more than 3°C, and only 6% think 1.5°C will be achieved. Most say the target is dead.

We already see profound climate damage at 1.2°C, and every additional +0.1° means 140 million more suffering dangerous heat. Over 2.5°C means food price spikes, broken supply chains, mass migration. At 2.7°C, 2 billion people will be outside the habitable zone. At 3.0°C, cities including Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami, The Hague will be below sea level.

The scientists see a future that will be harrowing, with famines, mass migration and conflict. They feel fear, frustration, distress, and are overwhelmed. Their good science did not make a difference to policy. They see humanity is heading for destruction, with the climate emergency already here. This is the biggest threat humanity has ever faced. Societies will be forced to change from severe suffering and damage.

Why? For 75%, it is a lack of political will, 60% blame vested corporate interests, and only 27% see a lack of money. The fault is also short-term thinking by governments and businesses. They see the capture of politicians and media by fossil fuel companies and petrostates. Another root cause is the gap between rich and poor, with growing inequality. Rich countries have taken all the carbon budget.

On the positive side, they see hope from green technologies, and moving to more inclusive and equitable ways of living. It is getting cheaper to save the climate. Social tipping points could also trigger large-scale climate action. There is hope in the younger generations that are fighting climate change. The worst-case scenario is still avoidable.

SOURCE: based on Damian Carrington, The Guardian Weekly 17 May 2024, pp. 34-39.